2026 Budget: What is a "blank year," the savings plan envisaged by François Bayrou?

The hypothesis is constantly being raised. To save 40 billion euros on the 2026 budget, François Bayrou could announce on Tuesday, July 15, the implementation of a "blank year." Under this system, in 2026, all or part of public spending would be capped at its 2025 level, without taking inflation into account, which would automatically lead to savings.

Typically, certain expenditures, such as adult disability benefits or general retirement pensions, are automatically reassessed from one year to the next to account for rising prices. If the spending freeze were to be chosen, in 2026, social benefits such as the activity bonus or the RSA (Responsible Social Security) could maintain their 2025 levels. But the details of this "blank year" are still unclear. In a partial version, it would only affect a portion of state and social security spending; in its maximalist form, all public spending would be renewed without increase, from social benefits to ministry credits, including grants to local authorities, among many others. According to the National Institute of Statistics, of the €1,670 billion in public spending in 2024, between €400 and €500 billion have been indexed to inflation.

Public statements by members of the government have fueled the hypothesis of this blank year. "I think there will be a pause on certain expenditures," declared the Minister of Public Accounts, Amélie de Montchalin, in early July in Le Figaro . This is "an option on the table," confirmed the Minister of Foreign Trade, Laurent Saint-Martin, on France Inter on July 6. The objective is to reduce the public deficit, which stood at 5.8% of GDP last year and is expected to reach 4.6% in 2026. No minister has specified the scope envisaged for such a freeze.

According to former civil servant François Ecalle, a public finance specialist interviewed by AFP, the lack of revaluations could theoretically also affect salary increases for healthcare professionals or even automatic career advancements for civil servants. The income tax scale or the general social contribution – revalued based on inflation – could also be frozen.

In the latter two cases, the consequence would be that some households would see their contributions increase, and other households, previously saved, would become taxable. This would therefore be a disguised increase in taxes, although the government has long made it a principle of any tax increase except for the wealthiest.

A general blank year has never been implemented in France. However, freezes on certain spending have been decided on several occasions. Under François Hollande's presidency, between 2014 and 2016, retirement pensions were not increased. The index point for civil servants has also been frozen for several fiscal years in recent years.

The expected gain from this measure for public finances is difficult to predict before knowing its scope. The Institute of Public Policy and the French Economic Observatory recently shared similar estimates, according to which a total blank year would save between approximately €5.7 billion and €6 billion. If we focus on cash transfers to households, freezing all indexed social benefits (including pensions and unemployment) would generate €5 billion, and an additional €1.2 billion from freezing the income tax scale. These estimates are far removed from the €40 billion in savings sought by the government.

Opponents of this measure also warn of its recessionary effects: by leading to a drop in consumption and investment, it could in turn penalize tax revenues.